An experienced driver at the top of his sport with a team backing him to review telemetry data to extract the last of the performance with the distraction of an accident at any point vs an enthusiastic amateur spending as much time as they are able to on their own with a simulator that tries to get as possible to the same conditions but without the fear of running into a tree.
I think there are too many unknowns on both sides to calculate what the difference should or shouldn't be to any accuracy. All I know is that that the chance they would be the same are small.